Startup ideas have two dimensions, here is a view of unconventional success
1. right or wrong. 2. consensus or non-consensus
💡 The key to unconventional success in the startup world is to find an idea that is both right and non-consensus, as this can help you avoid the pitfalls that come with being right and consensus, such as increased competition and diluted valuations. By focusing on unique, underexplored areas where you can offer distinct value, you position your startup to exploit untapped markets or create new ones, steering clear of the fierce rivalry and value dilution that plague more popular ventures.
💡 I love the way Andy Rachleff views unconventional success 💙
🌟💬 Something we all know but just said in a much better way.
Andy Rachleffs view was influenced by Howard Marks of Oak Tree Capital, and it goes something like this:
➡️ Startup ideas have two dimensions.
✅❌ One dimension is right or wrong
👥🚶♂️ The other is consensus or non-consensus.
💩 Wrong is wrong. Obviously, if you are wrong, it’s bad. You fail.
😴 Right and consensus.
Your startup might be onto a good idea, have users eager to use it. But through the adoption period en route to product/market fit, it will hit some massive roadblocks.
✅ The consensus that the opportunity has promise starts a cycle;
➡️ Multiple me-too competitors are funded by me-too VCs.
➡️ Competition floods the market, prices erode, sales cycles lengthen, and more money funds more competition.
➡️ A VC funding arms race begins and with each funding round comes massive dilution for the founders and employees.
➡️ Right and consensus are usually not successful enough to make venture type returns
🎉 Right and Non-consensus.
🔍 Identifying the Right and Non-consensus
Figuring out which ideas are consensus or non-consensus is straightforward, but discerning which ones are right requires insight and foresight. Entrepreneurs must sift through noise to find genuine opportunities that defy conventional wisdom.
🚀 Navigating Right and Non-consensus
This journey demands a blend of resilience, strategic foresight, and the ability to protect and nurture the idea against skepticism. Building a competitive edge and maintaining it as the idea gains traction is crucial.
🤝 Finding the Right Partners
Aligning with partners who share your vision and are prepared for a non-traditional path is key. These individuals must believe in the long-term potential and be willing to invest in it.
💡 Iterative Learning and Adaptation
Success involves testing assumptions, validating ideas through experiments, and adapting based on feedback. This agility is essential for refining the approach and navigating market complexities.
🌟 Embracing the Role of a Visionary
Venturing into the right and non-consensus realm often requires a visionary mindset. Entrepreneurs must communicate their vision effectively and lead their team through uncertainty with conviction. It's easy to tell which ideas are consensus or non-consensus, but figuring out which ones are right 🤷🏼♂️
✅ The thing about contrarians is– they are usually wrong.
However, it's from the pool of contrarians that groundbreaking innovations emerge. For those intrepid enough to navigate the path of right and non-consensus, the rewards extend beyond financial gains; they include the satisfaction of having made a significant impact, changing industries, and perhaps even the way we live.
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