The Oracle analysis here is brutal but probably accurate. 3/10 rating and "85% chance of distres by 2029" is pretty damning. The math is stark - $15B cash flow vs $16-21B annual commitments means they're basically underwater before they even start building the infrastructure. What really stands out is the "optionality: none" assessment. Oracle is completly locked into OpenAI's success, which is a binary bet on AGI happening within 5 years. If OpenAI can't pay that $330B, Oracle is holding massive debt-financed data centers with no backup plan. The comparison to other stratgies makes it clear Oracle took the riskiest path possible.
The Oracle analysis here is brutal but probably accurate. 3/10 rating and "85% chance of distres by 2029" is pretty damning. The math is stark - $15B cash flow vs $16-21B annual commitments means they're basically underwater before they even start building the infrastructure. What really stands out is the "optionality: none" assessment. Oracle is completly locked into OpenAI's success, which is a binary bet on AGI happening within 5 years. If OpenAI can't pay that $330B, Oracle is holding massive debt-financed data centers with no backup plan. The comparison to other stratgies makes it clear Oracle took the riskiest path possible.
That’s exactly what it looks like. Late to the game and paying the price